Sunday, January 24, 2010

Sellouts in Afghanistan have already sold - next idea?

Makes sense - those who wanted the money path or security path have already taken that path. So, let's see now... if you are an Afghan or Pakistan youth who wants to make a name for himself, to make a difference, to create a valued identity in a traditional manner - what do you do? Ah, you become a warrior and rebel - not a member of a regimented army but a warrior in your culture's tradition. But if there is no invader or imperialist, or corrupt ruler to rebel against - blank. Maybe we should just leave and take the corrupt officials we have put in power with us ya think?
clipped from www.registan.net

The Downside to Bribing/Co-opting/Reconciling Whomever

Well okay, so that’s really The Times saying that, but it’s nevertheless a widespread belief… including within the Karzai administration. The thing is… there is a long history of offering the Taliban jobs and bribes to join the government, at least since mid-2002 or so. And talking about negotiations in this way ignores two critical pieces of data:

  • Most of the insurgents who would be willing to join the government have already done so; and,
  • There is very little evidence that a lack of bribes or jobs is a primary reason why people choose to fight for the insurgents.
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